Democrats Maintain Lead in National Polls

According to RealClearPolling's latest national congressional ballot average, Democrats lead Republicans by 51.4% to 43.2%, giving them an 8.2-point advantage.

A separate Economist/YouGov survey released Thursday found that 44% of registered voters expect Democrats to control the House of Representatives after the election, compared with 31% who expect Republicans to retain control.

Expectations for the Senate were closer, with 39% anticipating a Democratic majority and 36% expecting Republicans to remain in control.

More Than 43 Million Americans Have Voted Early

Early voting has increased significantly compared with the 2022 midterm elections.

An Associated Press analysis released Friday reported that more than 43 million Americans had already voted in person or returned mail ballots, nearly 10 million more than at the same stage in 2022.

Several states with competitive Senate races have recorded substantial participation:

  • Texas: More than 6.3 million early votes were reported by Wednesday, compared with 4.2 million at the same point in 2022.
  • Georgia: More than 2.5 million ballots had been cast by Friday morning, exceeding the 2.3 million recorded during the entire early voting period in 2022.

Long queues were also reported at polling stations in Georgia. Some younger voters attributed their interest in the election to social media and growing political awareness.

However, early voting figures do not reveal which candidates voters have selected or determine the final election results.

Trump Restores Kansas and Iowa Campaign Rallies

Trump has reversed an earlier decision to cancel two weekend campaign rallies in Kansas and Iowa.

The White House initially announced Thursday that the president would replace the in-person events with nearly 20 telephone campaign appearances. However, both rallies were later restored to his schedule for Sunday.

Trump's campaign team reportedly views his personal appearances as an important way to encourage Republican supporters to vote.

He also campaigned in Florida on Friday, urging supporters not to become overconfident ahead of Election Day.

Trump is expected to campaign with Republican Senate candidate Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas.

Competitive Senate Races Draw National Attention

Several closely watched Senate contests could influence which party controls the upper chamber.

In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton. An Emerson College poll cited in the supplied reporting showed Hamilton leading with 49% support compared with Marshall's 45%.

In Texas, Republican candidate Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are concentrating their final campaign efforts on Houston. Paxton cancelled an event in El Paso to focus on Harris County as early voting concluded.

Alaska is another important battleground. Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola is expected to campaign in Bethel, while the race has attracted attention because of a dispute involving two candidates named Dan Sullivan.

Trump has alleged that Democrats recruited an independent candidate with the same name as Republican Senator Dan Sullivan to confuse voters. Peltola has denied involvement in the alleged effort, and the Department of Justice has taken legal action related to the dispute.

Democrats Also Intensify Their Campaign Efforts

Former President Bill Clinton campaigned for Democrats in Mississippi on Friday, encouraging residents to participate in the election.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is also scheduled to appear with Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton.

Meanwhile, Republican candidate Mike Rogers is expected to campaign alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Both parties are using their final days to reach undecided voters and encourage supporters to participate in the elections.

What Happens Next?

The final campaign weekend will be important for candidates competing in closely contested House and Senate races.

Trump's planned appearances in Kansas and Iowa, along with campaign events by Democratic leaders, reflect the effort to increase turnout before Tuesday.

Voters will head to the polls on November 3, when the results will determine control of Congress and shape the political direction of the United States.

Key Points

  • Democrats lead Republicans by 8.2 percentage points in the national congressional ballot average.
  • More than 43 million Americans have reportedly voted early.
  • Texas and Georgia have recorded substantial early voting participation.
  • Trump has restored campaign rallies in Kansas and Iowa.
  • Several Senate races, including those in Kansas, Texas and Alaska, remain closely watched.
  • Early voting totals do not indicate which party will ultimately win.

Source: Fyrim reporting and analysis, based on national polling averages, the Economist/YouGov survey, Associated Press early voting data.